To be brief, the modern baseball card market is like no other. With high buy in prices, prices that don't match performance, and other marvels that leave most investors guessing, how some cope with the market's trends is beyond most people's realm of knowledge. I've been investing in modern baseball cards for probably five to six years and consider myself to be pretty knowledgeable when it comes to market trends and conditions.

So, how do you pile in six years of knowledge and oodles of information into one post? I guess we're all about to find out.

The biggest marvel that is the modern baseball card market begins where, well, the market begins: the release of a new product. Because the issue at hand is going to be prospecting, we'll follow Bowman Chrome and Bowman Draft to really see just how crazy the baseball card market is.

Obviously, there are headliners in each set. With Bowman Draft, which we'll begin at 2003, it was Delmon Young, then Matt Bush, then Stephen Drew/Ryan Zimmerman, etc. Obviously every product had a headliner autograph or else the product simply wouldn't sell for jack squat. The first thing to note is that release prices are always the absolute highest. For anybody. Fast forward to 2008/9, those who busted cases early are smiling. When else could you have sold the absolute worst autograph in a set for $5-$10? Good luck getting $8.50 for a Daniel Schlereth 2008 BDP AU now. Good luck getting $15 for Blake Beavan (for now that is... he still has potential for growth). The bottom line is that the hype a product generates always leads to absolutely insane prices. The headliner obviously gets extremely high. The card that I'm going to follow for most of this thread is Justin Upton's 2006 Bowman Chrome RC Autograph.

Upon release, the lucky few who got the Upton Chrome AU on the market first got well over $250. While this didn't last, the product hype (and hype for Upton alone as a prospect) fueled his card to extremes that won't be around for quite awhile (if at all). With prices settling in the upper-$150's, when Upton was tearing up Visailia and Mobile, his base autographs were at $150. I remember being upset when the card, due to the offseason (to be explored later) and other reasons, hit $120. It had been at $150 for so long and seemed to have settled at that price. So, now with Upton hitting .350 with 10 HR in the MLB at age 21, the not-so-informed investor would think the card is at an all time high, right? Not even close. Upton Chrome AU's are able to be had for $85-$90 and even then, this isn't even the all time low. What gives? By reading the rest of the guide, I will hopefully be able to deduce why this happened.

From my first dabble in prospecting with Craig Brazell (I surprisingly made a lot of money) to my latest with Michael Stanton, I always loved looking at why cards increased in value. I already spoke briefly about cards often peaking during release, but what else fuels a card? What else makes it gain in value?

Obviously, a great performance in the minor leagues would warrant a high price. In the futuristic 2013 Bowman Chrome Draft Baseball, Richard Head, a SS prospect for the Florida Marlins and recent 1st Round Draft pick, hit .335/22/86 with 18 steals in High-A. Remaining consistent throughout the year in terms of performance, his card will probably hit a high level and not move much beyond that. So, when Richard Head gets the call in September, following his great start to the year, his card will probably take a small bump. But what's next? Most prospects obviously will not take off in their first stint in the bigs. Many will end up being sent back down while others will hang on by a thread (think Justin Upton). With a mediocre performance, the card will go down in value. Why? There are a few stages a card has to increase:

A.) Upon release.
B.) Upon post-release hype and solid performance.
C.) At callup time.

These are the prime opportunities to make money and those who manipulate these times will be happy. So let's revert back to Justin Upton. Obviously, he had a huge few months in 2008. Because he was performing so well, his stuff went back up. But because he finished the rest of the year at a not-so-special pace, cards went down. And now that he's performing again, the hype is gone. Those who bought were sheeps, buying because he had a good performance. Sure, you have team/player collectors who buy "their" guy once he makes the bigs, but for the most part, sheep fuel this game that we call "prospecting". They buy out of the gate because they think that these peak release prices will go up and up. They buy at good performance because they think they are getting a second hand at the card and it will continue to go up. Guess what? It doesn't (in most cases at least).

Once this secondary hype is done with, looking at Justin Upton that is, obviously the only thing that will cause prices to go up will be insane performance. Nobody is going to pay extraordinary prices because he simply isn't a prospect, and that is where a bulk of the market is. If he hits .250/18/77, so what? This isn't all star status and the only futuristic gains will be if he puts up all star status numbers. Now, obviously this is very funny. Why? Because Justin Upton is 21. People are paying more for guys who are 23 and hitting just as well in the minors, than somebody is in the majors. And again, this is because there is so much hype in the minor leagues and people paying for "THE NEXT JUSTIN UPTON" than the actual Justin Upton. This is just how important hype is in this business and is where people will make money now and forever. The sheep that many do not understand and often bash are the sole reason why the market does so well.

Another reason that is quite rare is, obviously, a trade to a bigger market team (Cubs, Yankees, etc). Looking at Teixeira, he already had his callup/good performance peak in price and was at a low. When he was dealt to the Yankees, his prices went way up, but still were way below peak prices.

This is the most common trend I have witnessed in rookie card/rookie card autographs of current players. In most cases, the hype significantly boosts the prices to astronomical levels. Not every player turns into Albert Pujols, and this example is of a player hyped signifcantly, but eventually fell off into a mediocre first season, such as a .290/15/85 line as a 22-year old. This can be the cases with most prospects, as nobody is a sure bet. As you can see, the hype increased the value of the card to a greater level than anything. I broke the prices down like this for an overhyped prospect.

Price 1 – The price upon release of the card. Generally pretty high. Price 2 – The price of the card during a players reign in the minors, a very good one at that. Prices move higher. Prices 3 and 4 – The price of the card during the hype about a potential major league call up. Price 4 is the callup and a chance to make $. Price 5 – Price the card maintains if the player doesn’t go absolutely insane in the majors, such as Ryan Braun or Albert Pujols. Falls down quite a bit to under Price 1 levels. Prices 6 to 9 – Cards prices when people realize the player hasn’t won the MVP or done something significant (i.e. hit 30 home runs, bat over .300, etc). Maintains a steady, lower pace. With Justin Upton, I think he'll move from Price 5 to probably Price 3ish because he should improve.

One investment idea that I myself have toyed with, is buying RC Autographs of established stars. While I still make a little bit of $ in a minor prospecting venture, the idea of this is stability and maintaining an ego. I want the best of the best and by buying Cabrera, Hanley, Braun, etc RC Autographs, I am doing just that. But will these see meteoric rises like prospects do? No. And why? Because what more can they do? What can they do, outside of momentous occasions like a 60+ HR year, Triple Crown year, etc, that will make people suddenly decide they need to buy RC AU's of Ryan Braun now? People make the stupid argument that Griffey Jr. '89 UD cards will skyrocket once he makes the HOF, but again, this is ludicrous. Everybody is anticipating this and there isn't one person who is going to be surprised if/when he gets in. The day he gets in isn't going to cause some ruckus and boom in the market. It will be a minimal, if at all, increase. But these cards provide stability, which most prospects cannot do because, well, you are only a prospect for so long.

The whole reason the market scares me is because, at what point does somebody always bid a card up to a certain price? For 10+ years are people going to be bidding $450 for a Miguel Cabrera Topps Traded RC AU? Won't enough people have had time to buy in and be satisfied? I am honestly blown away by this and don't understand how there is always a different buyer bidding and maintaining a baseball card. The same has always confused me about airline flights and how every flight at every time seems to be booked. I guess this is beyond us to fathom, but it's crazy to think if you really think about it.

So if you want to make money, there are indeed a few ways how:

A.) Don't buy at release. Again, prices are usually always highest here for those prospects who aren't going to set the world on fire in the future. The only exception is, obviously, if a Lonnie Chisenhall-esque $15 chrome AU goes out of nowhere and hits. Posey AU's peaked here so far, Stanton's did, etc. I say peak speaking in terms of today's market and not in the future, as you'll see there are a few other times to make $.

B.) Either sell at a callup or before. Once a player is established, prices are pretty much set. That is why I worry about the Vin Mazarro collector, dchurg (I think?). Mazarro tore up the minors and prices didn't move. Now that he's in the majors, and, let's be honest, it probably won't last long, prices still haven't moved. Unless the dude wins 15-20 games and has a perfect game, prices probably won't move much. He isn't projected as an ace and mediocrity doesn't sell, does it?

C.) Buy into players in the majors after another stint that show promise. Justin Upton chrome AU's at $85 are a bargain and are at their lowest levels and should go up once he settles in. But at that point, I'd sell, because prices are always going to be stable.

D.) Don't be greedy. If you see a profit, take a profit.

E.) Research, Research, Research. I cannot emphasize this point enough. The biggest mistake is the impatient buyer buying up cards they have not done research on. Ask around, check eBay completed listings to establish a price in mind on a card and track it for a few months if it is a bigger buy. I started buying up Miguel Cabrera 2000 Topps Traded RC Autographs, but I waited awhile to establish what I believed was the peak price and bought accordingly. I witnessed the card soar up to $900 raw and over $1,400 graded BGS 9 and figured this would be a nice place to establish a peak price at. I made a mental note of such and waited awhile for it to drop. I also established that the card peaked during a certain performance point, after his first full season in the majors. I thought that the high prices were due to newer buyers jumping on the bandwagon early. I made mental notes on all this and waited. Just as I spoke about before, there is a strong possibility that the card won't EVER see peak prices again, but it is a stable, safe investment. Good hitters don't stop hitting.

F.) Plot as to when you want to buy. When the Miguel Cabrera 2000 Topps Traded Autograph dropped down to $300 one offseason (they went even lower this past offseason as well), I remembered seeing the card more than 2.5x this just two years ago and thought it would be an excellent time to buy. Why? First off, it is the offseason and prices are at a low. Because the player is not playing, collectors may not be paying attention to a certain card as they would during season when a player performs up to standards. I began buying at $400, noting it has never been this low (at least not for a few years). For a card that debuted at $15-$20, it was quite a jump. After the 2003 World Series, it shot up to $150-$200. If only we could go back in time, eh?

G.) Again, know when to sell. Another player I bought up in the 2006-2007 offseason, was Grady Sizemore. I witnessed the card hitting $350-$400 in March, 2006 due to Grady being a fan favorite and when the card fell to $150-$200, I knew I had to take advantage of it. I bought (4) copies at prices ranging from $160-$200 and couldn't have been any happier. The card ended up shooting up to $375-$400 and I sold. Not because I thought this was peak price, but because it was great profit potential for me to throw into other cards and repeat the process over and over again. Because of all the research, I gauged the market perfectly. My only regret was not buying more nor going with my gut instinct. I was playing it careful, yes, but knowing when to sell was key. Holding the card for too long is a huge mistake many often make and is a reason to the loss of cash for many collectors.

Another element of the market that I enjoy witnessing, is "older prospects" making a comeback. From your Craig Brazell's to your Ryan Howard's to your Josh Hamilton's, it is never too late to give up on a prospect. Sure, there are extreme cases as seen in the latter two of those, but what about the others? What about Craig Brazell? Look at Homer Bailey. He is way past the peak he had upon an amazing performance following his debut. He's that $15 chrome AU that exploded due to unexpected (for some sheep) performance. And then he struggled. And then prices went down accordingly. But because he has a bad rep in the market now, people are hesitant. The bottom line, though, is he is 23 years old. Matt LaPorta is 25. Most prospects in AA/AAA are older than Bailey. And he's starting to make a comeback. I'm merely pointing Bailey out because he is a good example. Sure, nobody likes to hear that he hates baseball, etc, but if Bailey starts performing, prices will shoot up regardless of how old he is. Ask the Shelton guys. Ask anybody. If you are investing in somebody 26 and in AAA, I first off hope your buy in was low and I also hope the player is tearing it up. So many people forget these guys and they end up making the most money.

Another guy to look into for now, is BJ Upton. Upton is struggling in the majors and cards are very low. I bought (2) UD PP AU BGS 9.5/9 AU for $55 dlvd. They had hit more than double this with a 10 AU at one point in time. But because he is slumping, people jump off the bandwagon. This is the prime time to buy if somebody has the potential that BJ does.