Courtesy of Heritage Galleries & Auctioneers, Dallas, Texas.

By Jim Halperin

A hundred years ago, national coin shows did not exist. The closest thing consisted of local get-togethers and swap meets among a few dozen collectors living near the same city. A cross-country trip by railroad could take a week or longer, hardly conducive to a four-day hobbyist convention. Today, I think little of boarding a plane on Tuesday in Dallas, Texas three times a year to attend the Long Beach Coin and Collectibles Expo in California. There, over the course of a few days, I expect to see - and perhaps do business with - almost every major dealer in America, as well as thousands of collectors, investors, and dealers from all over the world, then fly home in time to spend the weekend with my family.
Coin shows have certainly changed. Yet I predict that over the next thirty years, they'll evolve far more dramatically than they have over the past century. The catalyst for such rapid evolution is a technology even more profound than the airplane: namely, the Information Superhighway, of which today's Internet is the metaphorical equivalent of the first few years of aviation after the Wright Brothers' little experiment at Kitty Hawk. In other words, our current Internet merely demonstrates through implication what can and must eventually occur.

For example, digital images broadcast over the Net already convey far more information than any printed catalog plate. Nevertheless, when I go to a show these days, I spend about half my bourse-time looking through boxes of coins. I still need to see them in person, to tilt them and inspect the luster, to look at certain characteristics of strike, eye appeal, and surface that simply cannot be discerned with optimal accuracy any other way. But digital technology is young. How much longer before I - and my customers - can get the same visual information about a coin, virtually, over the Internet or its successor, without losing anything in the digital translation? My prediction: no more than fifteen years.

Heritage Numismatic Auctions conducts the official U.S. coin auction at every Long Beach show. Today, roughly 50-65% of our sales take place on the bidding floor, to buyers who have personally inspected the coins. That may seem like a lot, but five years ago that number was 80-90%. Through Heritage's interactive bidding software, aggregated pricing and rarity information, and full-color digital images of every coin, the Internet has finally begun to let buyers compete convincingly from their homes or offices. How long before any advantage of inspection and in-person bidding disappears entirely? My estimate: no more than twenty years.

These days, at every coin show, I have numerous meetings and conversations with customers, suppliers, members of the numismatic press, and others. Some encounters last a few seconds, others many hours. How soon before I can achieve roughly the same experience sitting in a Virtual Reality pod, and seeing, hearing, and perhaps shaking hands or sharing a meal with a holographic image of my companion, or even many companions at once? My guess: no more than twenty-five years.

Does this mean that coin shows will disappear? No, but they might barely be recognizable to today's attendees. Does that imply that almost anyone will be able to organize a viable coin show? In a sense, yes, the same way that almost anyone today can set up a web site. But a few coin shows - or perhaps only one - will dominate the space, just as a few web sites tend to dominate each space on the Internet now. Imagine a much more futuristic version of eBay (but specializing in coins), or AbaCoin, connected to a live bourse in a single location, then broadcast under a convergence of two-way wireless Internet, telephone, television, and Virtual Reality mediums so advanced that they'll make Star Trek seem like the Dark Ages.

In fact, thirty years from now, there might be just one coin show left. If so, it will likely last decades, and run 24 hours a day, seven days a week. It could be based anywhere on Earth. It would encompass all forms of trading from negotiation to reverse and Dutch auction format, to public electronic exchanges. Each buyer could easily adjust lighting conditions and other viewing and trading standards to his or her preferences. All participants would have immediate access to complete rarity, pricing and demand information, objective computerized coin grading (perhaps based on standards individually set by each buyer), and frictionless payment for any goods transacted. Travelling to its physical location would be optional, and of no trading advantage whatsoever, since Virtual Reality inspection of coins, meetings, seminars, negotiations, and other dealings would supply just as much information as any face-to-face encounter.

Still, some people would no doubt show up in person every once in a while. Perhaps it would make the experience more enjoyable, and more authentic somehow, even if your senses could no longer tell the difference.

Copyright 2000, published by permission from the July 10 issue of Coin World.