Courtesy of Heritage Galleries & Auctioneers, Dallas, Texas.

By Jim Halperin

I've been reluctant to speculate on the second half of the 21st century in this column, because I know my ideas may seem far-fetched, even bizarre. But several readers have asked, so here are three random musings:
1) By the end of the 21st century, I predict that scientists will achieve perfect replicas of coins and other objets d'art, indistinguishable from their originals. Yet strangely, such replicas will not appreciably hurt the coin market.

President Clinton made news in January by recommending the government budget $497 million for nanotechnology research. Nanotech is the emerging science of building structures molecule by molecule, and few scientists doubt it can be accomplished. Imagine being able to quickly evaluate any item's exact atomic composition, create a blueprint and assemble it perfectly, almost like a child's Lego project!

So why wouldn't widespread ability to replicate coins leave current numismatic collectors and investors holding the bag?

While researching The Truth Machine back in 1995, I discussed a similar subject with Penn Jillette, of Penn & Teller fame. (Coincidentally, Penn is the son of Sam Jillette, a retired Massachusetts coin dealer I'd periodically done business with many years earlier, and quite a character in his own right. Sam's business card read in part: "Why don't Jillette me sell you some coins?") At the time, in addition to P&T's popular Broadway show and television career, Penn was also a columnist for Wired magazine. For much of our three hours together, he tried to convince me that digital audio and video would render forensic evidence obsolete for solving crimes, because criminals could undetectably alter such evidence at will.

Yet continuing my research, I eventually came to the opposite conclusion: that surveillance technology would evolve to actually bolster forensic evidence. For example, by 2010 and possibly sooner, most of us will be wearing more computing power than exists inside today's desktop PCs, with cameras and microphones that could broadcast to unimpeachable third-party agencies. Thus, long before the ascent of nanotech, many of us will choose to electronically "document" our lives, and all events around us, to protect ourselves and others against crime - and, as a side-benefit, against false accusations. As more of us opt for such transparency, privacy will gradually give way, along with opportunity for undetected fraud and other mischief.

Similarly, transparency will protect owners of original items of value. Any coin without provable pre-nanotech provenance might be valued based solely on intrinsic metal. Yet original coins will still be treasured, just as the original Mona Lisa is and will always be worth millions of times the price of a perfect forgery. Furthermore, the provenance of even common numismatic items will, as a rule, be as perfectly determinable as the Mona Lisa's is today.

2) By mid-century, auctions will resemble today's trading networks. In fact, the two mediums will merge.

For one thing, auctions will run at a much faster pace, with thousands of coins sold per second as contrasted with today's 100-200 per hour. Artificial Intelligence (AI) programs will calculate and execute each auction bidder's limits based on all known population, price history and budgetary data, the AI's assessment of quality based on the bidder's taste, the bidder's stated (or calculated) desire for the coin, and even the anticipated bids of others.

Most bidders will leave the work and decision-making to their computers, though some might participate in real-time as entertainment. Even then, few, if any, will attend auctions in person, because sitting in a Virtual Reality (VR) pod at home will provide an identical experience. You might think that AI systems would give bidders a huge edge, but every other bidder will have the same benefit, so bargains will be rare.

Commissions will be tiny: likely a fraction of 1% versus the 5-30% auctioneer's cut prevalent today. Trading will consequently become far more frequent, just as stock-trading volume has been driven in recent years by lower commissions and online research capabilities.

3) At the century's end, coins should prove to have been an excellent store of value, with prices astonishingly high as compared to today's.

Because of exponential increases in liquidity and information, and the confidence they convey to buyers, demand will mushroom over time, albeit in fits and starts. Furthermore, governments will have ceased minting coins for circulation long before the second half of the century, thus decelerating the supply.

Another reason coin prices should increase is that disposable income and leisure time will soar. A century ago, the typical American worker toiled 30-40 hours a week just to earn enough money to feed his family. Today, through advances in agricultural sciences and transportation, that figure has dwindled to less than an hour a day. Even though the gap between rich and poor has widened, third-world economies have been growing even faster than America's. In 50 years, it may take the average world citizen only minutes a day to earn basic needs. In the coming age of free information, biotech, and nano-assembly, most people will have far more than required to survive comfortably, and much more free time to pursue individual interests.

Numismatics will remain a popular endeavor indeed, especially for those of us fascinated by art, history, politics, geography, government, finance, and numerous other related fields.

Copyright 2000, published by permission from the April 10 issue of Coin World.