The purpose of this guide is to raise awareness of the potential that the 2008 silver american eagles may very well be a low population year.

Why, you say, would this be the case?  Nobody really knows since the U.S.Mint doesn't share a lot of information on the subject. At least not like they did at one time. So, we're all kind of left quessing. I've seen or heard many figures throw around  from various sources, some credible, some not so credible. The fact remains nobody really knows. However, there are good arguments and reasons supporting this theory.

First and foremost is the price of  "spot" silver. We all know the price exceeded $21.00 per oz. recently which just happened to coincide with the period the mint was in production of many silver products. I'm certainly no insider to the working of the mint but it is my understanding that the last 10 million ozs. of silver the U.S. Government had in store went out to the mint, I believe, in 2002. It is my understanding that at one time they held vast silver reserves. No longer, according to some authority. If this is true it means they must buy on the open market. In that case they are much more sensitive to "spot" price.

 Let me give you a good example. The 2007 burnished eagle was selling for $21.95. The 2008 burnished came out at $25.95. A $4 per oz. jump in price. At the same time the 2008 proofs were still at $31.95. Figure that one out. The only explanation is the price of silver at the time of production. I was lucky enough to have made a fair purchase of 07's at the time "spot" silver was $21.14, only 84 cents above "spot".

Now look at what has happened, "spot" has dropped back to the $16.50 range and many feel the prices are out of line. Another good example is the price of the "bald eagle proof" which is 90% silver. Priced from the mint at $44.95, these can be bought in the $35.00 range all day. Why? They are over-priced relative to "spot" silver. They therefore will be hard to sell at these prices. Are you going to buy from the mint when you can buy them cheaper on ebay or other sources?

Finally, the U.S. Mint stops shipping 08 bullion coins to dealers. What happened? An artifical market was created that to some extent still persists today because of their scarcity or maybe not.  Rolls of 08 bullion were selling in the high $400 range, some exceeding $500.00. The market has adjusted some but the 08 bullion are still hard to come by. Nobody wants to pay the high prices with "spot" silver where it is, right?

Well, maybe or maybe not! Anybody's guess. With the mint missing a chance for sales can they be re-captured at these prices? That is the question. If not, we may very well end up with a low population of  08's which will drive the price. If they recover and make substantial sales until they have to move on to other production products then maybe not. Just food for thought!!  J R

UPDATE 2/17/09  The U.S.Mint's 2008 annual report shows sales of 17.5 million plus ounces of silver bullion up from 7.9 million ounces in 2007. Sales of silver bullion were up 126% and gold bullion sales were up 200%. Sales were suspended on at least three occasions due to spot silver price volatility and, production delays were due to the scarcity of planchards. I believe this can be explained by the entry of the investor as opposed to the collector entering the market and driving sales. This trend seems to be continuing into 2009 with suspensions already announced. However, unlike 2008 when margins from distributors were low, they are now over twice what they were in 2008 which will discourage some in the investment field as it will make it difficult and risky to pay the higher margins and make a profit. HOLD ON TO YOUR SEAT FOR ANOTHER WILD RIDE!