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Below is a brief synopsis of the past, present, and what may be the future of perfect PCGS MS70 American Silver Eagles.  We know that navigating the world of modern coins can be very difficult and time consuming, we hope our guides provide you with a resource that enables you to make more effective decisions regarding some of your numismatic investments.  Here is our latest effort in this regard.  We hope it helps clarify a few questions you may have.

For the first 21 years of the uncirculated American Silver Eagle (ASE) from 1986 to 2006, PCGS only certified 16 total as MS70 as follows:

1986 -  3

1988 - 1

1995 - 1

1997 - 3

1998 - 3

2006 - 4

In 2006, the U.S. Mint also produced a different uncirculated strike known as a "burnished" strike.  These were produced at West Point in both 2006-W and "20th Anniversary" 2006-W.  Populations of those coins can be found in our other guide entitled: "PCGS MS70 "20th Anniversary" American Silver Eagle?".  Although PCGS certified quite a few more MS70's (relative to previous years) in the 2006-W variety, these coins are already selling for well over $1,000, with a recent First Strike 20th Anniversary MS70 selling for $9,400 (a single coin... not the three coin set).

How Much is a 2007-W PCGS MS70 ASE Worth?

In 2007, the Mint produced both 2007 and burnished 2007-W uncirculated silver eagles; and the 2007's are the second lowest mintage American Silver Eagle ever produced by the Mint (2006 is the lowest).  Initially, people flocked to this 2007 coin and the prices started to rise because the PCGS population report stated (and still states as of 31 December 2007) that PCGS has only certified 196 as MS70.  But then word got out that the PCGS population report was inaccurate (partially due to the fact that over 196 could be seen on Ebay at a time); and the prices dropped below $140 each.  So, what is the actual population of this coin and what should it be selling for?

Here is the straight scoop on the population as of 31 March 2008:  PCGS has actually certified 3,053 2007-W MS70 First Strikes to date... yes, 3,053.  What does this mean for the value of the 2007-W?  Since there is no precedent in PCGS ASE's of similar populations to compare to (this is the first year that PCGS has certified these coins in reasonable quantities as perfect), no-one knows exactly where this coin should be priced right now.  This is to your advantage.

We recommend looking at the price history of the NGC 2006-W coins as a reasonable guide to future 2007 PCGS values... in the Spring of 2007, NGC MS70 2006-W's ("20th Anniversary" black label and/or "Early Release") peaked at over $800 each, then tapered back 9 months later to their current high at around $650 (with Early Releases selling for less than 20th Anniversary's).  Bear in mind, the NGC MS70 population of the 20th Anniversary Eagles is 6,023 (double the PCGS 2007-W); and the NGC MS70 Early Releases pop is an additional 1,625.  Even given the greater popularity of the 20th Anniversary coins - at half of that population, the 2007 PCGS MS70 ASE's should do very well... especially the First Strike variety.  When making this comparison, be sure to compensate for any premium the market might put on the "20th Anniversary" coins over the non-anniversary years.

It appears that 2008 PCGS First Strike American Silver Eagles are certifying at the MS70 grade at several times the rate of 2007's, which explains why there are so many available everywhere you look.  As an indicator, there are already 8,507 of the 2008 PCGS MS70 First Strikes alone... almost three times as many as the 2007-W's, making the 2007-W's the coin to own between the two.  As of 31 March 2008, PCGS has graded an unbelievable 272,827 2008 First Strike Silver Eagles, with 264,320 earning a grade of MS69 or lower.  This is a profit windfall for PCGS.

Given the extreme rarity of all previous years coupled with the fact that the price has already been factored into those previous year coins for a few years to come; and given the elevated certification rate of the 2008-W, it is becoming clear that the 2007-W MS70 PCGS ASE First Strike may just be the "best kept secret" of the American Silver Eagles.

A simple Ebay test to illustrate the 2007s vs. 2008s is to build a search that shows only recent sales for PCGS ASE MS70s for the years in question, as illustrated below (the underlined text is hyperlinked... click on the link to see the search results; but remember to come back to this guide when you're done):

1. First, make a mental note of the number of recently sold 2008-W ASEs you have just seen - once PCGS publishes their population report for the 2008-W's, you may be surprised to see that their published population of MS70s could be much lower than that.  Inevitably, the initial reports will be very low - perhaps somewhere between 100 and 200; and sellers listings will tout the low population as their justification for higher prices... At the very least, there will be a significant delay between the time coins are graded and the time the population numbers are published... buyer beware. 
2. Now let's take the reasonable person's approach:  Obviously, many of the 2007's have already been tucked away in collections, so supply is starting to wane.  Basic economics (the law of supply and demand) dictates that prices are likely about to head up.
3. The 2008's recently came out from the U.S. Mint, so there are thousands yet to be graded.  Those buying 2008's now (Feb 2008) are on the "bleeding edge"... i.e. they are buying in anticipation of favorable future population and mintage numbers; or they are simply banking that regardless of those results, the prices are low enough right now to justify their investment.  They are "playing the market" hoping to win.  Inevitably, the 2008's will rise in the Spring and fall in the Summer.

Regardless of the approach you take, we hope this information expedited your decision cycle.

Good luck Ebayers!  We hope to shake your hand some day.  Please vote "Yes" below if you found this guide helpful.  Thank you.

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