Searching coin listings on eBay for almost any particular certified coin inevitably shows hundreds of listings with the wording "Only (insert number) graded higher" by (PCGS or NGC). An interesting but mostly worthless statement. While it may appear to reveal condition rarity within a series such numbers are questionable at best?

Too many variables exist that make this number suspect, and while the grading companies publish such figures, they are at best nothing more than a synopsis of the population report for that grade on that specific date by that specific company. Sounds good, and probably worthless in the end.

The particular population report quoted is specific to that grading service, whereas there are a half dozen grading services whose figures are not included in that census. ANACS, PCGS, NGC, ICG and so forth all maintain independent records regarding population numbers of the same coin, none share that information with the other as the information is proprietary. Then, consideration must be made concerning the number of coins not graded by any of them?

While in a series, say a Bust Half Dime in MS65, the statement that "Only 10 graded higher" may be correct in as much as those graded by that company, one must assume that not all Bust Half Dimes from that year have been certified? In my own collection, I have coins that remain in raw uncertified condition. These coins are not figured into the equation of known condition census coins. I am one collector of thousands who have collections of coins that are not certified?

From time to time, hoards of coins come into the market, population reports can change overnight. A recent release from the US Mint at the time of this review are the new Buffalo Gold Coins. A few days into that release it would be safe to say that a proof 69 PF69 is one of the best known with only 25 graded higher. Next week however, there will be 200 higher graded, and in a month, 1100. Already, those numbers of condition census pedigree are making an appearance in the listings selling those coins.

In the late 1950s numerous dates of Morgan Silver Dollars were considered quite rare and prices for those examples were accordingly quite high. When the US treasury discovered and released millions of additional dollars discovered in their vaults in the early 60s, the price on those Morgan's dropped by 50%. Instant rarity to common population, overnight. It seems that every few years, hoards of coins are discovered, released into the market and rarity numbers change in weeks.

One must exercise extreme caution in using current population data for examples of collector coins minted in the last 25 years or so given modern minting techniques and quality control oversight. Modern proof and uncirculated commemorative issues were specifically made for coin collectors in rather large mintage's. It is a reasonable expectation that newly issued coins should be of the highest quality.

Another more recent series of population report census numbers have started to appear concerning the VAM Attribution / Registry certification holders for Morgan and Peace Silver Dollars. Whereas regular grade certification holders have been around for years, these new variety designations have been around a very short period, measured in months. Only recently has PCGS and NGC added such designations to the slab label and maintained yet another database of populations of VAMS attributed.

These new VAM holders are only a small fraction of the known coins in as much as actual population goes. It is evident that these new population numbers are now included in auction listings regarding supposed rarity. Some VAM numbers are so common as to be mostly worthless, yet looking at the new census numbers, appear quite rare.

Caution must be used in the acceptance of published rarity as a determining factor in the purchase of any coin, those published reports do change. Buy your coin based on your desire for its looks and how it fits into your collection, take the population reports with a grain of salt and know that those numbers will increase over time.