A month ago I have bought a DVD with 2006 Krause catalogue. Earlier I was oriented to 2004 version and noticed that prices of coins of my interest were regularly and significantly fluctuating from estimations which Krause specified.

Below you can find my modest analysis based on my observations of eBay auctions and of some closed catalogues of floor auctions.

So, first my beloved pieces of eight.

Krause points the follows:

1. Prices of Mexican colonial 8 reales are untouched. Absolutely.
2. Prices of Bolivian colonial 8 reales are basically untouched. The new positions of uncirculated conditions appeared in 1806-1808 KM#73; these ones and 1824-1825 KM#84 positions are moderately raised.
3. Prices of Peruvian colonial 8 reales of highest conditions are moderately (10%) raised; the uncirculated positions appeared; KM#106.2 in every condition is extremely raised (up to 250%).
4. Prices of Chilean colonial 8 reales is untouched.
5. Prices of republican Mexican 8 reales are the same.
6. Prices of Straits Settlements coins are overpriced in 25% in average.

The appearance of "Unc" positions is connected obviously with presentation of some high quality coins on floor auctions and on eBay live auctions.

The moderate shifting of prices of popular coins (of early 1800's) is probably influenced by demands of "investors".

Some people have an opinion that silver coins can bring them additional income. Naturally, the investment will be good if you make contributions into the popular, demanded, circulated goods. Such actions temporarily  cause an increasing of prices. Temporarily. Last year the popular coins and of scarce/rare coins were overpriced in relation to the prices of the catalogue, meanwhile the coins of middle conditions were and are still a little underpriced.

The republican 8 reales of Mexico, it seems to me, are also the investment coins now. They are raised in value and are on sale for 1.5 catalogue price in VF-XF. Krause haven't notice this fact.

In contrast, the Straits Settlements coins basically have lower price than the listed one. This fact is inverted by catalogue. Probably the composers have simply decided to overtake inflation.

Thus, what can I say about the catalogue price correction?

1. The catalogue editors pay their attention differently to different parts of catalogue. Some parts look like thoroughly advanced, others are unconsidered.
2. They sometimes make unreasonable decisions for correcting recommended prices, based on inflation expectation.
3. They use basically the informations about floor auctions where the rare or unique coins are offering.
4. The method of market evaluation of Krause is still unknown.
5. This catalogue is still the most popular and powerfull mean for price orientation.

Happy bidding,
Alex