How to spot a great deal... in 10 seconds or less
Many people get stuck on the analysis of a property – they are afraid to make a mistake!
This is commonly known as analysis paralysis and is very common in left-brained
engineering types of people.
In general, you should act on a deal if you have collected 70% of the information. If you
wait for 90% or more, the deal will probably be gone.
Acting on a deal requires making quick decisions, and making quick decisions requires
knowing your deal criteria up front and taking calculated risks.
So everyone is looking for a great real estate deal. But what exactly is a great deal? Ask
10 different people and you’ll get 10 different answers.
Why is that? Because the answer depends on the needs of the investor. Are they looking
for…
Cash flow from rental properties? And how much cash flow do they expect?
Equity gains from flipping property? How much of a gain?
Now for those of you who don’t know what these words mean, here are some quick
definitions…
Cash Flow
The movement of cash, either positive or negative amounts, through an investment
vehicle. You receive positive cash flow or you pay negative cash flow.
For real estate, the basic formula is:
Total Income – Total Expenses = Cash flow
Equity
The amount of money left over after all liabilities/debts are subtracted from the
market value of an asset/investment. For real estate, the basic formula is:
Total Assets (Market Value of Investment) – Total Liabilities = Equity
So based on these definitions, what type of deal are you looking for?
Here’s a general rule of thumb to follow…
Rental properties generate cash flow
Flip properties generate equity gains
Decide up front what type of deal you want, and then start looking for that specific type
of deal.
Your next step is to define your deal criteria. This is where the knowledge of an
experience real estate investor comes in handy. It just so happens we’ve already done
that work for you…
Rentals
To fully analyze a rental property for profit potential requires collecting all of the income
and expense information from the vendor and, most importantly, verifying that
information.
When initially you’re looking for rental deals in the newspaper or even with realtors, you
will almost never have access to this type of financial information. Even if you did, a full
cash flow analysis of every property would be time consuming.
To solve this problem, you need a ‘rough filter’ to allow yourself to sort through a large
number of properties very quickly.
Here’s a quick 3-step process you can use to decide if the deal is worth your time to
analyze further. You can either perform this calculation in your head or with a calculator
in 10 seconds or less…
1. Determine the total annual income of the property
2. Determine the purchase price of the property
3. Divide the purchase price by 10 to determine the minimum annual income
required
If the total annual income is:
• Less than the minimum annual income, it probably IS NOT a good deal
• More than the minimum annual income, it probably IS a good deal
Remember… for rental property, a good deal is one which generates cash flow. The
property may still be priced under market value and could be a bargain, but it is not a
good deal from a cash flow perspective.
Let’s look at two examples…
Example #1:
Joe finds a duplex listed on the MLS for $150,000
Total monthly rent is $700 per unit = $700 x 2 = $1400 per month
Total annual income = $1400 x 12 = $16,800
Minimum annual income = $150,000 / 10 = $15,000
The total annual income is more than the minimum annual income, therefore, this
is probably a good deal and requires further analysis of income and expenses.
Example #2:
Mary finds a single family home listed on the MLS for $180,000
Total monthly rent is $1200 per month
Total annual income = $1200 x 12 = $14,400
Minimum annual income = $180,000 / 10 = $18,000
The total annual income is less than the minimum annual income, therefore, this
is probably NOT a good deal. You could still perform a further analysis of
income and expenses, but chances are it will not cash flow.
This technique is just a general rule of thumb to help you save time when looking at
deals. There are exceptions to this rule and by using it, you will miss some deals. But if
you’re trying to sift through a lot of properties, the time savings will be well worth it.
Flips
The process for analyzing a property for flipping is much easier than for rentals.
However, it does require knowledge of:
• Market value of similar properties in the area
• Approximate cost of any repairs or renovations required for the property
Market values can be determined by personally studying the real estate market, or by
asking a realtor for help. Repair or renovation costs can be determined using a cost guide
provided by a property inspector, or by asking a contractor for an estimate.
Here’s a quick 5-step process you can use to quickly determine if a property is probably
a good deal for flipping. You can either perform this calculation in your head or with a
calculator in 10 seconds or less…
1. Determine the purchase price of the property
2. Determine the cost of any repairs required for the property
3. Add the purchase price and cost of repairs to determine the After Repaired Value
(ARV)
4. Determine the market value of the property if the property was in good condition
5. Determine the price discount = After Repaired Value / Purchase Price * 100
‘After Repaired Value’ means the value of the property after all renovations are
complete, and the property is ready for sale.
If the price discount is:
• 81% to 100% of the property market value, it probably IS NOT a good deal
• 80% or less of the property market value, it probably IS a good deal
Remember… for flip property, a good deal is one which generates equity gains. The
property may still generate cash flow and could be a bargain as a rental, but it is not a
good deal from an equity gain perspective.
Let’s look at two examples…
Example #1:
Bill finds a condo listed on the MLS for $110,000
He determines the market value for a similar condo in good condition is $160,000
The condo needs $10,000 worth of repairs
Purchase price = $110,000
Repairs/renovations = $10,000
After repaired value = Purchase price + repairs = $110,000 + $10,000 = $120,000
Market value = $160,000
Discount = After repaired value / Market value = $120,000 / $160,000 * 100 =
75%
The price discount is 80% or less of the property market value, therefore, this is
probably a good deal and requires further analysis.
Example #2:
Wendy finds a single family home listed on the MLS for $220,000
She determines the market value for a property in good condition is $240,000
The condo needs $5,000 worth of repairs
Purchase price = $220,000
Repairs/renovations = $5,000
After repaired value = Purchase price + repairs = $220,000 + $5,000 = $225,000
Market value = $240,000
Discount = After repaired value / Market value = $225,000 / $240,000 * 100 =
93.7%
The price discount is 81% to 100% of the property market value, therefore, this is
probably NOT a good deal.
The above method allows you to buy property at wholesale prices (below market). You
can use lower discounts (e.g. 85%, 90%), but it’s very risky.
Why?
Because everyone always forgets about…
• Realtor fees
• Legal fees
• Holding costs (utilities, insurance)
• Staging costs (making it look nice)
• and all the other surprise costs along the way
Even if a property is discounted well below market value, if it has major renovations, you
may still want to move on to the next deal.
Why? Because major renovations are A LOT of work. And the costs for some
renovations, such as foundation work or work on older homes, can easily skyrocket past
your initial estimates.
Also, if the property is located in a bad area, you may have trouble selling the property
quickly enough to ensure you keep most of your profits. Remember… every month you
keep the property, you are losing money. If it takes 6 months to sell a property, you
could lose all your profits and more.
Do yourself a favour… stick to properties in decent areas that require only cosmetic or
moderate renovations.
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