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This guide is a summary of my thinking on how to predict which US State Quarters will be the most valuable in the long term. Like many people, I have found the US State Quarter program irresistible from a collector standpoint. However, like all collectors, I also tend to think about the long term value of my coins.
(If you like this guide, please vote "Yes" at the end. Your votes will help more coin collectors find this guide!)
Background on the US Mint 50 State Quarters Program
Quoted from Wikipedia:
The 50 State Quarters program is the release of a series of commemorative coins by the United States Mint. Between 1999 and 2008 (the anticipated completion date), it features each of the 50 individual U.S. states on unique designs for the reverse of the quarter.
During the program, a new statehood quarter is released by the United States Mint every "quintile," or 1/5th of a year (73 days); five designs are released each year. Each quarter's reverse celebrates one of the 50 states with a design honoring its unique history, traditions and symbols, usually designed by a resident of that state and chosen by the state government.
The quarters are released in the same order that the states joined the Union. The obverse of each quarter is the same, but is a redesign of the previous design of the quarter.
The statehood quarters program has become one of the most popular commemorative coin programs in United States history; the United States Mint has estimated that over one hundred million individuals have collected state quarters, either formally or informally.
Are all State Quarters created equal?
As most coin collectors know, there are a lot of ways to predict the value of a coin. Collectors will look at the rarity of the coin, the intrinsic value of the base metal, and the popularity of the issuer. The best coins to look for are ones that are in high demand from the public, but in relatively short supply. Quality is one of the most obvious ways to evaluate a coin - the highest quality coins are typically quite rare, which increases their value.
The US 50 State Quarters Program truly has been so popular, it has literally invigorated the entire coin collecting market since its debut in 1999. That's good news, as it indicates a large amount of ongoing demand for these coins that will likely continue into the future.
I live in the state of California, and I remember in 2005 reading an article about the new California state quarter that immediately grabbed my attention.
When is 520 million a small number?
The United State Mint only produced 520,400,000 California state quarters. That might seem like a lot, but this article explained that since there were over 36,000,000 California residents, this quarter was the "most rare" on a per-capita basis.
Sure enough, using public sources like the US Mint website and Wikipedia, I was able to get total mintage numbers for every US State Quarter through 2006 and compare them to the 2005 Population data for each state.
Why did the US Mint produce so few California state quarters?
The answer is actually pretty simple. The US Treasury does not order quarters based on population of the state that is on the quarter. The US Treasury orders quarters based on the current status of the US economy, the money supply, and the need for additional currency. It may be economics trivia, but what happens is that when the economy is doing poorly, the US Treasury orders more currency as they try to add liquidity. When the economy is strong, they order fewer coins.
New Hampshire may be a small state, with a population of only 1.3 Million in 2005, but the quarter was minted in late 2000 as the dot com bubble was bursting, and the US entered a recession. The US Treasury printed a lot of currency, including 1.2 Billion quarters - 892 for every New Hampshire citizen alive in 2005.
How can you use this information when buying US State Quarters?
It's pretty simple, really. The US Mint makes public mintages for every state quarter, as they mint them. It's on their public website. Population figures for the different states are also readily available online. By taking the number of quarters minted, and dividing by the population, you can get a state quarter rarity index (SQR) that lets you compare the potential supply & demand for a given quarter. Lower is better, in this case, because it means there are fewer coins per resident, making the coin more rare.
Please note: this number is only interesting if you believe that the primary demand for state quarters will be two groups: people with an interest in collecting all the quarters (who will want one of each) and people with an interest in collecting their state quarter (the state they live in). It's the second group that will put the extra demand on the more rare state quarters in proportion to their population, raising the prices for the first group who just wants "one of each".
My US State Quarter Rarity Index
I've decided to share this information and the rarity index here with the eBay Community. Here is the table I computed as of July 2006. I used the mintage data from the US Mint website, and the population data from Wikipedia. Feel free to calculate your own numbers if you find better (or more up-to-date) information.
I hope this information is useful to all the coin collectors out there. If it is, please feel free to drop me a note. I will try to update this guide over time as I continue to investigate this theory.
Update (11/9/2006): Wow! Over 100 people have viewed this guide already. If you find this guide interesting or useful, please take the time to vote for it as "helpful" below. Voting will help other coin collectors find this guide more easily, and it's much appreciated. Thank you!
Update (07/10/2007): I've updated this guide through June 2007 with mintage data for the first two quarters of 2007.
Update (01/19/2009): I've updated this guide through December 2008 with mintage data for all the 50 state quarters. This guide is now complete.
The Rarest State Quarters (to date)
Based on my calculations, the quarters with the lowest SQR index are:
California (14.4 quarters per resident)
Texas (23.70 quarters per resident)
Florida (27.08 quarters per resident)
Illinois (36.29 quarters per resident)
Michigan (45.41 quarters per resident)
The Most Common State Quarters (to date)
Based on my calculations, the quarters with the highest SQR index are:
New Hampshire (892.42 quarters per resident)
Delaware (918.56 quarters per resident)
North Dakota (1,044.17 quarters per resident)
Wyoming ( 1,108.20 quarters per resident)
Vermont (1,416.91 quarters per resident)
The Complete Table
For those of you who are curious, here is the complete table. I've updated this table through December 2008, based on US Mint data. It should be easy enough to produce the numbers for new quarters as they appear, and update this table with new population data.
State Quarter Mintage Population Rarity Index
1999
Delaware 774,824,000 843,524 918.56
Pennsylvania 707,332,000 12,429,616 56.91
New Jersey 662,228,000 8,717,925 75.96
Georgia 939,932,000 9,072,576 103.60
Connecticut 1,346,624,000 3,510,297 383.62
2000
Massachusetts 1,163,784,000 6,398,743 181.88
Maryland 1,234,732,000 5,600,388 220.47
South Carolina 1,308,784,000 4,255,083 307.58
New Hampshire 1,169,016,000 1,309,940 892.42
Virginia 1,594,616,000 7,567,465 210.72
2001
New York 1,275,040,000 19,254,630 66.22
North Carolina 1,055,476,000 8,683,242 121.55
Rhode Island 870,100,000 1,076,189 808.50
Vermont 882,804,000 623,050 1,416.91
Kentucky 723,564,000 4,173,405 173.37
2002
Tennessee 648,068,000 5,962,959 108.68
Ohio 632,032,000 11,464,042 55.13
Louisiana 764,204,000 4,523,628 168.94
Indiana 689,800,000 6,271,973 109.98
Mississippi 579,600,000 2,921,088 198.42
2003
Illinois 463,200,000 12,763,371 36.29
Alabama 457,400,000 4,557,808 100.36
Maine 448,800,000 1,321,505 339.61
Missouri 453,200,000 5,800,310 78.13
Arkansas 457,800,000 2,779,154 164.73
2004
Michigan 459,600,000 10,120,860 45.41
Florida 481,800,000 17,789,864 27.08
Texas 541,800,000 22,859,968 23.70
Iowa 465,200,000 2,966,334 156.83
Wisconsin 453,200,000 5,536,201 81.86
2005
California 520,400,000 36,132,147 14.40
Minnesota 488,000,000 5,132,799 95.07
Oregon 720,200,000 3,641,056 197.80
Kansas 563,400,000 2,744,687 205.27
West Virginia 721,600,000 1,816,856 397.17
2006
Nevada 589,800,000 2,414,807 244.24
Nebraska 591,000,000 1,758,787 336.03
Colorado 569,000,000 4,665,177 121.97
North Dakota 664,800,000 636,677 1,044.17
South Dakota 510,800,000 775,933 658.30
2007
Montana 513,240,000 935,670 548.53
Washington 545,200,000 6,287,759 86.71
Idaho 581,400,000 1,429,096 406.83
Wyoming 564,400,000 509,294 1,108.20
Utah 508,200,000 2,469,585 205.78
2008
Oklahoma 416,600,000 3,547,884 117.42
New Mexico 488,600,000 1,928,384 253.37
Arizona 509,600,000 5,939,292 85.80
Alaska 505,800,000 663,661 762.14
Hawaii 517,600,000 1,275,194 405.90
(If you like this guide, please vote "Yes" at the end. Your votes will help more coin collectors find this guide!)
Background on the US Mint 50 State Quarters Program
Quoted from Wikipedia:
The 50 State Quarters program is the release of a series of commemorative coins by the United States Mint. Between 1999 and 2008 (the anticipated completion date), it features each of the 50 individual U.S. states on unique designs for the reverse of the quarter.
During the program, a new statehood quarter is released by the United States Mint every "quintile," or 1/5th of a year (73 days); five designs are released each year. Each quarter's reverse celebrates one of the 50 states with a design honoring its unique history, traditions and symbols, usually designed by a resident of that state and chosen by the state government.
The quarters are released in the same order that the states joined the Union. The obverse of each quarter is the same, but is a redesign of the previous design of the quarter.
The statehood quarters program has become one of the most popular commemorative coin programs in United States history; the United States Mint has estimated that over one hundred million individuals have collected state quarters, either formally or informally.
Are all State Quarters created equal?
As most coin collectors know, there are a lot of ways to predict the value of a coin. Collectors will look at the rarity of the coin, the intrinsic value of the base metal, and the popularity of the issuer. The best coins to look for are ones that are in high demand from the public, but in relatively short supply. Quality is one of the most obvious ways to evaluate a coin - the highest quality coins are typically quite rare, which increases their value.
The US 50 State Quarters Program truly has been so popular, it has literally invigorated the entire coin collecting market since its debut in 1999. That's good news, as it indicates a large amount of ongoing demand for these coins that will likely continue into the future.
I live in the state of California, and I remember in 2005 reading an article about the new California state quarter that immediately grabbed my attention.
When is 520 million a small number?
The United State Mint only produced 520,400,000 California state quarters. That might seem like a lot, but this article explained that since there were over 36,000,000 California residents, this quarter was the "most rare" on a per-capita basis.
Sure enough, using public sources like the US Mint website and Wikipedia, I was able to get total mintage numbers for every US State Quarter through 2006 and compare them to the 2005 Population data for each state.
Why did the US Mint produce so few California state quarters?
The answer is actually pretty simple. The US Treasury does not order quarters based on population of the state that is on the quarter. The US Treasury orders quarters based on the current status of the US economy, the money supply, and the need for additional currency. It may be economics trivia, but what happens is that when the economy is doing poorly, the US Treasury orders more currency as they try to add liquidity. When the economy is strong, they order fewer coins.
New Hampshire may be a small state, with a population of only 1.3 Million in 2005, but the quarter was minted in late 2000 as the dot com bubble was bursting, and the US entered a recession. The US Treasury printed a lot of currency, including 1.2 Billion quarters - 892 for every New Hampshire citizen alive in 2005.
How can you use this information when buying US State Quarters?
It's pretty simple, really. The US Mint makes public mintages for every state quarter, as they mint them. It's on their public website. Population figures for the different states are also readily available online. By taking the number of quarters minted, and dividing by the population, you can get a state quarter rarity index (SQR) that lets you compare the potential supply & demand for a given quarter. Lower is better, in this case, because it means there are fewer coins per resident, making the coin more rare.
Please note: this number is only interesting if you believe that the primary demand for state quarters will be two groups: people with an interest in collecting all the quarters (who will want one of each) and people with an interest in collecting their state quarter (the state they live in). It's the second group that will put the extra demand on the more rare state quarters in proportion to their population, raising the prices for the first group who just wants "one of each".
My US State Quarter Rarity Index
I've decided to share this information and the rarity index here with the eBay Community. Here is the table I computed as of July 2006. I used the mintage data from the US Mint website, and the population data from Wikipedia. Feel free to calculate your own numbers if you find better (or more up-to-date) information.
I hope this information is useful to all the coin collectors out there. If it is, please feel free to drop me a note. I will try to update this guide over time as I continue to investigate this theory.
Update (11/9/2006): Wow! Over 100 people have viewed this guide already. If you find this guide interesting or useful, please take the time to vote for it as "helpful" below. Voting will help other coin collectors find this guide more easily, and it's much appreciated. Thank you!
Update (07/10/2007): I've updated this guide through June 2007 with mintage data for the first two quarters of 2007.
Update (01/19/2009): I've updated this guide through December 2008 with mintage data for all the 50 state quarters. This guide is now complete.
The Rarest State Quarters (to date)
Based on my calculations, the quarters with the lowest SQR index are:
California (14.4 quarters per resident)
Texas (23.70 quarters per resident)
Florida (27.08 quarters per resident)
Illinois (36.29 quarters per resident)
Michigan (45.41 quarters per resident)
The Most Common State Quarters (to date)
Based on my calculations, the quarters with the highest SQR index are:
New Hampshire (892.42 quarters per resident)
Delaware (918.56 quarters per resident)
North Dakota (1,044.17 quarters per resident)
Wyoming ( 1,108.20 quarters per resident)
Vermont (1,416.91 quarters per resident)
The Complete Table
For those of you who are curious, here is the complete table. I've updated this table through December 2008, based on US Mint data. It should be easy enough to produce the numbers for new quarters as they appear, and update this table with new population data.
State Quarter Mintage Population Rarity Index
1999
Delaware 774,824,000 843,524 918.56
Pennsylvania 707,332,000 12,429,616 56.91
New Jersey 662,228,000 8,717,925 75.96
Georgia 939,932,000 9,072,576 103.60
Connecticut 1,346,624,000 3,510,297 383.62
2000
Massachusetts 1,163,784,000 6,398,743 181.88
Maryland 1,234,732,000 5,600,388 220.47
South Carolina 1,308,784,000 4,255,083 307.58
New Hampshire 1,169,016,000 1,309,940 892.42
Virginia 1,594,616,000 7,567,465 210.72
2001
New York 1,275,040,000 19,254,630 66.22
North Carolina 1,055,476,000 8,683,242 121.55
Rhode Island 870,100,000 1,076,189 808.50
Vermont 882,804,000 623,050 1,416.91
Kentucky 723,564,000 4,173,405 173.37
2002
Tennessee 648,068,000 5,962,959 108.68
Ohio 632,032,000 11,464,042 55.13
Louisiana 764,204,000 4,523,628 168.94
Indiana 689,800,000 6,271,973 109.98
Mississippi 579,600,000 2,921,088 198.42
2003
Illinois 463,200,000 12,763,371 36.29
Alabama 457,400,000 4,557,808 100.36
Maine 448,800,000 1,321,505 339.61
Missouri 453,200,000 5,800,310 78.13
Arkansas 457,800,000 2,779,154 164.73
2004
Michigan 459,600,000 10,120,860 45.41
Florida 481,800,000 17,789,864 27.08
Texas 541,800,000 22,859,968 23.70
Iowa 465,200,000 2,966,334 156.83
Wisconsin 453,200,000 5,536,201 81.86
2005
California 520,400,000 36,132,147 14.40
Minnesota 488,000,000 5,132,799 95.07
Oregon 720,200,000 3,641,056 197.80
Kansas 563,400,000 2,744,687 205.27
West Virginia 721,600,000 1,816,856 397.17
2006
Nevada 589,800,000 2,414,807 244.24
Nebraska 591,000,000 1,758,787 336.03
Colorado 569,000,000 4,665,177 121.97
North Dakota 664,800,000 636,677 1,044.17
South Dakota 510,800,000 775,933 658.30
2007
Montana 513,240,000 935,670 548.53
Washington 545,200,000 6,287,759 86.71
Idaho 581,400,000 1,429,096 406.83
Wyoming 564,400,000 509,294 1,108.20
Utah 508,200,000 2,469,585 205.78
2008
Oklahoma 416,600,000 3,547,884 117.42
New Mexico 488,600,000 1,928,384 253.37
Arizona 509,600,000 5,939,292 85.80
Alaska 505,800,000 663,661 762.14
Hawaii 517,600,000 1,275,194 405.90
Guide created: 10/28/06 (updated 11/01/09)
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